Can't Predict The Future, But...

 Investing is all about uncertainty and risk, and knowing that you cannot see the future,

you can only judge possible outcomes based on current circumstances. That’s what

makes it so interesting and fun. Even when you get it wrong you learn something.

That said, let’s have a look at Dateline Resources (DTR) in light of some recent events.

And it is important to understand that it will be almost impossible to keep any bias out

because I am not looking at all possible outcomes. Plus I am an existing DTR shareholder

so I am quite bullish, despite any negatives that I may point out.

DTR is a small Aussie (about $20 million market cap) exploring a piece of California’s San

 Bernardino Mountains. They have gold (and they keep finding more) and rare earths. They are 

just 6.5km from Mountain Pass Minerals which is a multi-billion dollar rare earth miner. The 

$7 billion MP is also building America’s only rare earth processing plant. All right next door 

to DTR.

DTR sits on the same geology as MP and looks to have significant rare earth reserves

as well as all that gold. DTR is tiny when compared with MP, but has massive potential.

History lesson over.

Recently, Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd bought a 5% stake in MP, working towards

securing critical minerals for the big Aussie miner. They spent $350 million, much more

than DTR's market capitulation.

(As an aside, I was there when they bought out Warrego Energy and they were brutal ,

and brutally honest, in their approach).

So I am wondering when they will cast their gaze up the road to DTR (my guess is that

it will be as soon as all DTR’s regulatory issues are resolved). Do I feel DTR will

become a takeover target for HPPL? Yes. Partly because it is such a cheap buy. But

also because DTR's resource significantly extends the life of the MP mine and

increases the profitability of their production facility.

The only current defence is that the DTR Board owns a fair chunk of shares. However,

as I have experienced before, that’s a straw wall.

Let’s not forget DTR's other asset: 80% ownership of a nearby strontium mine (really

useful as the development of non-rare earth magnets continues).

So DTR has a lot to attract HPPL.

Are there any other players in this sphere? Well, there’s Elon Musk and Tesla. And with

them strongly exploring the non-rare earth magnets, the strontium is a huge upside.

There is also an ongoing whisper that the (USA) Department of Defence may

nationalise rare earths in an effort to secure their own supplies of critical minerals. And

it will not have escaped their attention that the big Aussie miner wants the minerals for

themselves and they are not American. Is a stoush coming there? Probably. And the

ongoing conflict in the Middle East doesn’t help.

Does the DoD know about DTR? Yes.

Does HPPL know about DTR? Almost certainly (now).

Does Tesla (Elon Musk) know about DTR? Probably not yet.

MP is a globally significant mine and DTR’s resource looks equally significant. Am I

bullish about DTR? Yes. Am I an existing shareholder? Yes.

So if you were doing a very basic SWOT analysis, the only topic not really looked at is

weaknesses, and the main one for DTR is the usual one for a lot of small caps: cash

flow.

Can DTR weather the storm that may be coming? There is a lot to do to prepare and,

unfortunately, that takes attention away from running the company. And so the future, 

for DTR, looks interesting, and that reminds me of the Chinese curse about living in 

interesting times.

Remember, this is not financial advice, this is just how I see it.

Is DTR worth a look at? Yes.